Abstract: From the policy allowing couples to bear a second child if one parent is an only child to universal“Two-Child”policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. Based on the implementation of universal“Two-child ”Policy, using the data from China 2010 censuses, the article predicts the number of urban and rural population by the age shift algorithm as well as the number of interprovincial population migration with Markov chain in 2020. From the data in 2010 and 2020, the article analyzes the change of population migration pattern in China and its impact on urbanization development from the perspective of contrast. The results are as follows: 1) The“Two-Child”policy would not bring a sharp rebound in population size in 2020.2) According to the intensity and direction of migration, the area types of interprovincial migration can be divided into four modes: active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is much more than emigration, which is mainly located in the eastern coastal provinces; active areas have a larger migration and their emigration is much more than immigration, which is mainly located in the central and western China; active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is nearly equal to emigration; inactive area have a smaller migration, such as some provinces with a large ethnic minorities population. 3)Interprovincial population migration has a positive effect on the development of urbanization rate. It accounted for 30.77% of the augmentation of urbanization rate and it also narrows the discrepancies of urbanization rate among provinces in China, during 2010-2020. The implementation of universal“Two-Child”policy is a major adjustment of fertility policy in recent years, which will impact on the urbanization and the spatial distribution of populationto a certain extent.Because the influence has hysteresis quality, the fertility policy has not an obvious performance when it started to implement. In order to reduce long-term side effect from policy change, it is necessary to forecast and research potential social impact from the new policy.
Key words: age shift algorithm; Markov chain; area type; urbanization Scientia Geographica Sinica
【source】Scientia Geographica Sinica 2018年03期
